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The conflict involving Iran has already had a significant impact on global energy markets. While a ceasefire is currently in place, the situation remains unstable — and that uncertainty is feeding directly into oil and gas prices.
There is little likelihood of oil prices coming down soon. On the 23rd April, leading global maritime trade commentator Lars Jensen reported that it could take six months after any full peace agreement before shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal. According to Jensen, the US Pentagon estimates it will take that amount of time to clear the sea mines that threaten shipping.
For UK households, that matters. A large share of our electricity costs is still tied to global fossil fuel markets, and when those prices rise, household energy bills tend to follow.
At the same time, more homeowners are looking for ways to reduce that exposure. Solar energy, which generates electricity independently of global fuel markets, is becoming an increasingly practical option.
In this guide, we explain what’s happening, what it means for UK energy bills, and why solar is seeing a renewed surge in demand.
Worried about rising energy bills? Find out how much solar could save your home — get a free, no-obligation assessment from The Solar Co.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran.
In response, Iran moved to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route through which around 20–25% of the world’s seaborne oil and a fifth of global LNG normally passes. At the same time, attacks on regional infrastructure further disrupted supply.
The International Energy Agency described the situation as “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
Europe has been particularly exposed. Around 12–14% of its LNG supply comes from Qatar, much of which passes through the Strait.
Although a temporary ceasefire has allowed some traffic to resume, the situation remains fragile. Ongoing uncertainty — combined with infrastructure damage — continues to keep global energy prices elevated.
In the UK, electricity prices are still heavily influenced by global gas and oil markets. When those prices rise, household energy bills usually follow — often with a delay.
Since the conflict began:
The Ofgem price cap fell slightly on 1 April 2026, as planned before the conflict. However, forecasts now point to a reversal. Cornwall Insight expects a rise of around 12% from July, adding roughly £196 to the average annual bill.
| Period | Ofgem Price Cap (typical dual-fuel) | Notes |
| April–June 2026 | £1,641/year | Set before the conflict; includes gov’t subsidy |
| July–September 2026 | ~£1,837/year (forecast) | +12% increase; reflects war’s impact on wholesale |
| October 2026+ | Further rises expected | Wholesale market volatility likely to persist |
As can be seen in the table above, further increases are likely later in the year as higher wholesale costs feed through.
The price of energy on global markets is like the price of ingredients in a restaurant kitchen — when the cost of those ingredients goes up, the menu prices follow, even if there’s a short delay.
Energy markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical events. When major producers are disrupted, prices can rise quickly — and fall more slowly.
This was clear in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when UK household energy bills nearly doubled within two years. Even today, prices remain around 44% above pre-2022 levels.
The key lesson for many homeowners was exposure. When your energy supply depends on global fossil fuel markets, events far beyond your control can have a direct impact on your bills.
That experience drove a surge in solar adoption. UK installations more than doubled in 20223, as households looked for ways to reduce their reliance on grid electricity. According to government solar installation data, 2022 saw 112,299 domestic solar installations compared to 46,450 in 2021. That number has continued to grow with 182,031 homes installing solar arrays in 2025.
A similar pattern is emerging again.
Octopus Energy has reported an 80% increase in solar enquiries since the conflict began. CEO Greg Jackson described a “huge jolt” in customer behaviour, with many households deciding they need to act.
Interest in related technologies has also risen, including heat pumps, EVs, and home charging systems.
For many homeowners, the motivation is the same as in 2022: reducing exposure to rising and unpredictable energy costs.
Thousands of UK homeowners have already made the move to solar this year. Find out if it’s the right step for your home with a free quote from The Solar Co.
Solar energy offers a way to reduce that exposure.
Unlike grid electricity, which is tied to global fuel markets, solar panels generate power directly from sunlight. Once installed, that energy is not affected by fluctuations in oil and gas prices.
A well-sized system can cover a significant proportion of a household’s annual electricity use. In the South East, a typical 4 kWp system generates around 3,400–4,200 kWh per year — enough to meet most or all of an average home’s demand.
With battery storage, households can increase self-sufficiency further, often covering 70–90% of their annual usage.
Solar doesn’t eliminate reliance on the grid entirely. But it reduces how much electricity you need to buy — which limits your exposure to future price rises.
For a typical South East household:
Most systems pay for themselves within 7–10 years. With energy prices expected to remain volatile, some households may see shorter payback periods.
Periods of rising energy prices tend to drive increased interest in solar.
Even before the current conflict, UK energy costs were significantly higher than in 2021. Government incentives — including 0% VAT on installations and the Smart Export Guarantee — have already improved the financial case.
The current situation adds another factor: uncertainty.
However, solar is not an instant solution. From initial enquiry to installation typically takes 6–12 weeks. Once installed, it begins reducing exposure to rising prices and will continue for 25-30 years.
For many homeowners, the question of installing solar is less about timing the market — and more about reducing long-term reliance on it.
Will the Iran conflict push my energy bills up straight away?
Not immediately. The current Ofgem price cap runs until June 2026 and was set before the conflict began, so bills actually fell slightly from 1 April. However, forecasters including Cornwall Insight are projecting a rise of around 12% from July 2026, with further increases likely in subsequent quarters, as the conflict’s effect on wholesale prices works through to the cap.
Does the Iran war affect the UK directly?
Yes, indirectly. The UK imports LNG from Qatar (around 12–14% of Europe’s LNG supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz) and is exposed to global gas and oil prices through the way Ofgem sets the price cap. The UK also entered the conflict period with low gas storage levels — around 30% capacity — following a hard winter, which has amplified the impact on wholesale prices.
Will solar panels protect me from rising bills?
They won’t eliminate the impact entirely, but they will materially reduce how much grid electricity you need to buy. The more expensive grid electricity becomes, the more valuable every unit of solar electricity your panels generate.
How long does it take to get solar panels installed?
From first enquiry to a live, generating system typically takes six to twelve weeks, depending on surveying, DNO approval timelines, and installer availability. If you’re thinking about going solar, now is a sensible time to start the conversation.
Is there any financial support available?
Solar installations are currently zero-rated for VAT (saving around £1,000 on a typical system), and this is confirmed until at least March 2027. The Smart Export Guarantee pays you for surplus electricity exported to the grid. Low-income households may also be eligible for free or subsidised installations through the ECO4 scheme or the Warm Homes Local Grant, depending on location and eligibility.
The events of 2026 have reinforced a familiar pattern: when energy prices are tied to global fossil fuel markets, external events can quickly affect household bills.
Solar offers a practical way to reduce that exposure. It won’t remove reliance on the grid entirely — but it can significantly lower it, while providing more predictable energy costs over time.
For homeowners looking to take greater control of their energy use, it remains one of the most direct options available.
Ready to reduce your reliance on the grid and protect your home against future price rises? Contact The Solar Co today for a free, honest assessment — and take the first step towards energy independence.
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